Six irrational leaps to avoid in marketing - Part 2
Much of today's marketing works, but a good deal more has little or no effect, and some actually drives sales down. This is not to imply that most marketers wilfully deceive. Many have simply and unwittingly embraced time-honoured marketing myths. Guest contributor Steve Cuno explains in this, second half of Six irrational leaps to avoid in marketing.
Irrational Leap #5: "Sales are up ..."
It sounds convincing to say, "Sales went up when we ran the ads, so the campaign worked." Unfortunately, that line of reasoning is based on a logical fallacy well-enough known to have its own Latin name: Post hoc, ergo propter hoc. "After this, therefore because of this."
It's an easy leap to make, since what happens first often does cause what happens next. If you experience indigestion after overeating, you can safely blame the overeating. But coincidence can fool us.
In the early 1980s, sagging Harley sales picked up at about the same time that the company cranked up the creativity of its advertising. So the new ad campaign obviously caused the sales increase ... Or did it? Also at the same time, President Reagan increased the tariff on imported motorcycles from 4.4 percent to 49.4 percent. Maybe that had something to do with the company's sales turnaround.
If sales surged in the wake of your marketing campaign, congratulations. But you'll need more than that to establish that the campaign caused it.
Irrational Leap #6: "But it won lots of awards ..."
A quick look at advertising award competitions reveals categories like "Best Photography," "Best Use of Humour," "Best Design," "Best Editing," "Best Original Score," "Best Copy," and "Best Directing." Everything, it seems, except "sold the most widgets."
Funny thing. Awards given to salespeople are tied to numbers. I bet you've never seen a salesperson receive an award for funniest pitch, best jingle, or most original attire.
If you want to prove that award-winning marketing is de facto successful, you'll need to exclude these from your data: the many straightforward ads, like those for common household products, that produce sales; the many corny ones, like those for Ronco, that make fortunes; and the many highly praised creative ones, like the Taco Bell Chihuahua, that fail to increase sales.
Or, you could spare yourself the trouble. Admit that the number of awards your work garners is great for your ego - but has nothing to do with selling.
Toward Rational Marketing
Good news, marketers. You needn't be subject to the above-referenced or other irrational leaps. Here are four tips for making rational marketing decisions.
1. Conduct a valid predictive test
The trick is to quit asking people to tell you their behaviour, and discretely watch it instead.
How do you suppose the retail industry learned that people in the US tend to move to their right upon entering a store? Hint: not by asking them in focus groups or phone surveys. Researchers hid in stores and watched.
There are many ways to put customers in a position to show you how they'll behave; all it takes is a little imagination. Here's one example. Say you want to choose between Headline A and Headline B. Create two mailers that are identical but for the headline. Include a free incentive offer. Send A to half of a sample list of your market, and B to the other half. Now, count the replies. You can be pretty sure that the headline pulling more replies is stronger.
To be more than just pretty sure, retest. If you get the same results, the evidence is that you're on solid ground.
2. Take the emotion out of your decisions
The passion to be right is intoxicating. Sober up. Your objective is to sell widgets, not to bolster your ego. As you design a valid test, resolve in advance to accept the results, even if they fail to support your hunches.
3. Maintain control groups as a matter of policy
A sales increase during a campaign might or might not be a coincidence. You can find out by establishing a control group - a representative selection of customers who aren't exposed to your campaign. A quick comparison of control-group versus other-customer purchases will tell you what effect, if any, your campaign had.
4. Resist the urge to jump to conclusions
Logic leaps are beguiling. Force yourself to collect valid evidence. Remain sceptical about what the evidence says - as opposed to what you want it to say.
Warding Off Bean Counters
The more you train yourself to eschew unwarranted leaps and instead approach marketing from a sober, rational standpoint, the more you will find yourself creating and refining campaigns that are demonstrably and measurably successful.
Then, next time a bean counter turns a greedy eye on your budget, you won't have to defend your work with dodges like, "but it's so creative," "it did well in focus groups," or "I feel in my gut that it works." The numbers will speak for themselves.
It's too late to save Dr Brinkley's patients. I'm afraid it's also too late for the goats. It's not too late for marketers.
Steve Cuno is Chairman and founder of Response Agency, a US direct-response marketing firm in Salt Lake City. He is author of Prove It Before You Promote It: How to Take the Guesswork Out of Marketing (John Wiley & Sons).
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