Six irrational leaps to avoid in marketing - Part 1
There was no Viagra in 1918, but there were plenty of goats.
At the time, the alleged sexual prowess of goats enjoyed legendary status. So it was that Kansas physician John R Brinkley made a small fortune surgically implanting goat testicles in men seeking to enhance or restore their own virility.
Never mind that the procedure failed to deliver the promised benefit; that Brinkley was a medical school dropout who bought a diploma for $100; or that most of his patients died during or shortly after surgery. A steady supply of men handed over their cash to Brinkley's scruples, and their privates to his scalpel.
I hope you agree with me that the decision to undergo Brinkley's procedure was irrational. The risks of infection, mutilation, sterility, and death were clear ... yet otherwise presumably intelligent men convinced themselves to go ahead with implantation anyway.
Why?
Of course, you already know the answer. People who really, really want to believe, will believe - regardless of where the evidence points. Brinkley's patients really, really wanted the promised benefit, so they embraced his trumped-up 'success stories', and disqualified the negative outcomes.
We haven't changed much in 90 years. Consider the people you know who set aside evidence and common sense in favour of staying in bad relationships, racking up charges on psychic hotlines, lending money to losers, or wearing magnets to ward off arthritis - all motivated by an acute desire to believe.
Or, consider marketers who believe that their programs are working, even when the evidence says otherwise or, more often, when there is no evidence at all.
Do You Make These Six Irrational Leaps in Marketing?
All people, even marketers, are subject to irrationality. It's not a question of how smart you are, but of having evolved in an environment where impulsive actions kept us alive. Hunter-gatherers who paused to ponder whether a nearby roar signalled a hungry lioness or a mischievous parrot didn't last as long as those who simply ran.
Indeed, magnetic resonance brain imaging indicates that we are wired to believe the first possibility that enters our head. Taking a rational, second look isn't instinctive. It's something we must train ourselves to do.
Much of today's marketing works, but a good deal more has little or no effect, and some actually drives sales down. That much shouldn't surprise anyone who understands bell-curve distribution. What is surprising is how few marketers have a clue as to where in the curve their marketing falls. This is not to imply that most marketers wilfully deceive. Many have simply and unwittingly embraced time-honoured marketing myths - usually based on leaps that someone made long ago without checking for parrots.
Here are six out of many possible examples.
Irrational Leap #1: "Everyone knows ..."
Bad ideas are often embraced - and good ones dismissed - thanks to what 'everyone' knows. 'Everyone knows' that no one reads long ads, watches late-night TV, or buys when they sense that you're 'trying to sell them something'. So marketers keep copy under 100 words, spend a fortune on Prime Time, and sacrifice selling to subtlety.
Trouble is, these are cases in which 'everyone' is mistaken: Long ads outsell short ones, advertising on late-night TV generates more orders than on Prime Time, and blatantly promotional advertising outsells holding back.
Given how often 'everyone' is right, deference is understandable. Everyone knows - and rightly so - not to play catch with a hornet's nest, stick a finger in a fan, or pick on someone bigger than one's own size. But, on the other hand, not too long ago 'everyone' knew that our planet was stationary, time was constant, stress caused ulcers, and Iraq was stockpiling WMDs.
Marketing is rife with what 'everyone knows' that turns out not to be so. Some of marketing's most prevalent and damaging myths are "my gut is always right," "focus groups are predictive," "awareness means success," "sales are up because of the ads," and "award-winning advertising is effective." These are the subjects of irrational leaps 2 through 6.
Irrational Leap #2: "My tummy tells me ..."
Raise your hand - or just roll your eyes - if your boss ever embraced a bad idea or rejected a good one with, "I'm going with my gut on this one - and my gut is never wrong."
It's doubtful that anyone's gut intuition is right even most of the time. More often, hindsight and selection biases cause people to overlook times when the lower half's prognostications don't pan out. Or, they never know about those times, because employees fearful of Shot Messenger Syndrome avoid bearing bad news.
Remember that every restaurant that went under, movie that failed, new product that languished on the clearance rack, and business venture that capsized had the full vision and support of someone's gut that was allegedly never wrong.
Irrational Leap #3: "Research shows ..."
If you show storyboards to groups of 10 to 20 people who say, "Yup, that commercial would make me buy," you have a winner, right? If you phone 5,000 people and 80 percent say they'll switch to your brand if you change the tagline, they will, right?
Nope. Focus group participants told Telebrands CEO A. J. Kubani that they would cheerfully pay $19.95 for his RoboMaid product. But when he opened up a trunk of ready-to-purchase RoboMaids, no one bought.
And you may remember from history that in the 1948 US presidential race, both the Roper and Gallop organisations predicted a win for Dewey. This was based on asking statistically valid samples of Americans how they were going to vote. In case you missed it, Truman won.
Such cases are not unusual. If you ask people what they do, why they do it, or what they think they would do in a hypothetical situation, you'll learn much about their self-concept and nothing about their behaviour.
Don't believe me? Ask people - even in an anonymous survey - how often they wash after using the restroom. Then hide in a stall and count how many actually wash. The difference between what people believe about themselves and what you observe them do (or, not do) will surprise you. It may also discourage you from ever accepting another handshake.
Irrational Leap #4: "Awareness is up ..."
Advertising was invented to deliver a pitch in place of a live salesperson. Its measure of success was the number of people who purchased. Later, advertisers began judging their work by the number of people who noticed or remembered a campaign. Today, many advertisers believe that an ad has "done its job" if it draws notice.
To put this silly notion to the test, think about the Ford Edsel, New Coke, Wendy's pigtail-wig campaign, and the Subaru 'liar'campaign. These failed ventures still enjoy top-of-mind-awareness.
Steve Cuno is Chairman and founder of Response Agency, a US direct-response marketing firm in Salt Lake City. He is author of Prove It Before You Promote It: How to Take the Guesswork Out of Marketing (John Wiley & Sons).
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